China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka and India’s concerns

A everlasting PLA(N) presence within the Indian Ocean is a supply of concern to the Indian Navy which has been flagged by successive Chiefs of the Indian Navy.

By Commodore Anil Jai Singh, 

On 19 Could 2021, the Sri Lankan Parliament authorized the ‘Colombo Port Metropolis Financial Fee Invoice ‘by a majority vote (148-59). Hailing it as a supply of funding (USD 15 Billion) and employment (200,000 jobs) which is able to present a lift to the nation’s financial system, it refuted the Opposition’s allegations that it compromised the nation’s sovereignty and can turn into a Chinese language colony in Sri Lanka. Constructed at a price of USD 1.4 Bn on 269 hectares of reclaimed land off the Port of Colombo, it can embody a Particular Financial Zone the place will probably be free to function in any forex. The SEZ might be administered by a Particular Fee which might be exempt from sure authorized and constitutional oversight.

The passing of this Invoice shouldn’t come as a shock for the reason that Rajapaksa brothers, Mahendra – the Prime Minister (and former President) and Gotabaya the President are identified to be delicate on China. It was throughout the time Mahendra was the President and Gotobaya the Defence Minister that China was in a position to make main inroads into Sri Lanka as a part of its Belt and Street Initiative and gained a agency foothold in that nation. It developed the Hambantota port which it has now leased for 99 years for USD 1.2 Bn as a debt swap for the Chinese language mortgage although there are voices in Sri Lanka which dispute this stating that the lease was executed to generate cash to service its exterior debt and never the compensation of the Chinese language mortgage. Nonetheless, no matter be the specifics, the actual fact stays that Hambantota which is situated on the southern coast of Sri Lanka could have substantial Chinese language management. Infact, Sri Lanka has even moved its naval base at Hambantota to Galle.

Management of Hambantota port provides China a vantage place within the jap Indian Ocean to deal with its Malacca Dilemma. The passing of the Invoice which is able to quickly turn into an Act will give China an extra 269 hectares of reclaimed seafront off the Colombo port within the nation’s south-west with little oversight from the Sri Lankan authorities and can allow it to have full management to the extent that it may even regulate the motion of individuals and since any forex might be allowed for use, the Yuan might be a certainty.

Sri Lanka occupies a strategic place within the Indo-Pacific. Its southern tip straddles a number of the most crucial sea lanes on the planet over which a lot of the commerce and nearly the entire power transits to nations east of the Malacca Straits viz China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and plenty of others. It’s due to this fact vital for all these nations to make sure that the protection and safety of those sea lanes and the ships transiting by way of them is just not jeopardised. China is closely depending on oil from the Arabian Gulf – 80% of its oil imports are sourced from there and transit by way of the Straits of Malacca, some of the strategically essential geopolitical chokepoints on the planet. Previous to getting into the Malacca Straits , this site visitors passes by way of the Visitors Separation Scheme off Dondra Head which is situated solely about 10 nautical miles south of Hambantota. Management of this port is due to this fact a strategic asset for China in mitigating the vulnerability of its commerce and power in what’s known as its Malacca Dilemma. A powerful PLA Navy presence on this area is not going to solely safe its personal commerce however may even allow it to disrupt, delay or destroy the commerce and power flows to its adversaries. China’s Malacca Dilemma is its apprehension that India will be capable to block the western approaches to the Malacca Straits since they’re in shut proximity to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and USA and its allies within the Pacific with the ability to block the jap approaches thus crippling the motion of its service provider in addition to naval delivery. The Malacca Straits at its narrowest is lower than two miles huge and an efficient chokepoint.

From an Indian perspective this isn’t excellent news. India had been very uncomfortable with the earlier Rajapaksa regime and its proximity to China. Subsequently when the Sirisena/Wickremasinghe authorities got here to energy, there gave the impression to be a pro-India tilt although it didn’t significantly impression the Chinese language investments regardless of their coming below scrutiny. Infact, the Hambantota port was leased to the Chinese language throughout this era. Nonetheless, this authorities quickly gave approach to the Rajapaksa brothers who returned stronger than ever. Initially they made all the best noises – India was the primary nation they each visited after assuming workplace – Gotobaya as President in November 2019 and Mahendra as Prime Minister in February 2020 and reiterated the heat of the bilateral relationship. The President’s go to had been preceded by Dr Jaishankar, the Indian Exterior Affairs Minister visiting Sri Lanka per week earlier. On one other event Mahendra Rajapaksa additionally commented that the extent of Chinese language funding was maybe a mistake. These strikes allayed India’s apprehensions to some extent. In December 2020, Ajit Doval, the Indian Nationwide Safety Adviser travelled to Colombo to take part in a NSA degree trilateral assembly on maritime safety along with his Sri Lankan and Maldivian counterparts. Held after a niche of 4 years, it was determined to institutionalise this as a biennial occasion, and earlier this yr a everlasting secretariat was established on the Sri Lankan Naval HQ in Colombo to perform 24/7 on points associated primarily to maritime safety. Sri Lanka has additionally been a beneficiary of India’s SAGAR (Safety and Progress For All within the Area) Doctrine selling inclusive and cooperative capability constructing to safe the bigger Indian Ocean area from the normal, non-traditional, transnational and sub-conventional safety challenges that abound on this area. There are plans to combine Sri Lanka into the Coastal Safety Community and the Sri Lankan Navy additionally operates Indian-built Offshore Patrol Vessels.

A everlasting PLA(N) presence within the Indian Ocean is a supply of concern to the Indian Navy which has been flagged by successive Chiefs of the Indian Navy. Leasing Hambantota and the Port Metropolis mission makes it nearly sure that the PLA will quickly have a presence in these waters which can embody the basing of ships and submarines in addition to a staging publish for sustaining an extended deployment within the Indian Ocean. A PLA(N) presence within the jap Indian Ocean will definitely inhibit the Indian Navy’s deployment choices and can neutralise the geographical benefit it enjoys in these waters. China has been increasing its footprint within the Indian Ocean and has been recurrently deploying analysis vessels (spy ships) to collect intelligence and hydrographic knowledge. Availability of a base would allow a extra sustained presence.

Maybe of even better concern to the Indian Navy is that Hambantota and Colombo are lower than 300 miles from the Indian mainland, about 400 miles from Chennai and are lower than an hour’s flying time away. So India must adapt to the presence of its principal adversary virtually in its yard and form its preparedness and response accordingly.

It’s certainly stunning that India, regardless of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ coverage and its SAGAR initiative is unable to anticipate occasions in its strategic neighbourhood. It misinterpret Maldives a couple of years in the past when a coup unseated President Nasheed and allowed the Chinese language to make deep inroads into that nation regardless of the Indian Excessive Fee being only a stone’s throw away from the President’s residence in a metropolis that’s smaller than a Tier-2 Indian metropolis and led to the cancellation of the strategic worldwide airport mission with an Indian agency. Bangladesh, regardless of a pleasant Sheikh Hasina on the helm and a wholesome bilateral relationship procured two Ming class submarines and a frigate from China which supplies that nation a military-diplomatic leverage that’s detrimental to India’s pursuits within the Bay of Bengal. As not too long ago as final week the Chinese language President Xi Jinping was in Bangladesh warning it to not encourage further regional powers into the area (learn ‘Quad’). Nonetheless, Bangladesh can’t be blamed for turning to the Chinese language to boost its naval pressure ranges since India’s dysfunctional defence-industrial insurance policies and method to defence manufacture coupled with political myopia has left it bereft of indigenous submarine expertise and due to this fact the flexibility to supply a submarine to its neighbour. India’s overseas coverage mandarins determined to counter this by handing over considered one of its Kilo class submarines to Myanmar to deepen the bilateral engagement with that nation and improve the safety framework within the Bay of Bengal. Previous to the handing over of this worthwhile platform which additional depleted India’s poor submarine pressure, the Indian Military Chief accompanied by the Overseas Secretary had visited that nation. Lower than six months later, the army junta in that nation staged a coup overthrowing the democratic course of and leaving India stunned and in a bind. Whereas the world criticised the transfer in no unsure phrases and mentioned punitive motion, India needed to calibrate its response very rigorously as a consequence of its personal safety imperatives within the area. Therefore India’s maritime diplomacy in our strategic neighbourhood has been lower than spectacular within the current previous so the flip of occasions in Sri Lanka shouldn’t come as a shock.

China has made no secret of its intention to dominate the Indian Ocean by way of its quick increasing navy and strategic initiatives just like the BRI. A everlasting PLA(N) presence in shut proximity to India would undermine India’s personal place within the Indian Ocean and its potential to form the geopolitical outcomes within the area. It should due to this fact pay way more consideration to securing its maritime frontiers and its regional pursuits with a synergistic overseas and safety coverage with due prioritisation and dedicated funding for growth of enough naval pressure ranges, addressing functionality deficits and intensifying its capability constructing initiatives within the area.

(The writer is Vice President of the Indian Maritime Basis, and a former submariner. Views expressed are private and don’t replicate the official place or coverage of the Monetary Categorical On-line.)