By Dharmesh Shah
Fairness benchmarks snapped the previous two weeks’ profitable streak amid risky international cues. The Nifty concluded the week on a subdued notice at 14678, down 1%. The Nifty midcap misplaced 0.7% whereas small-cap gained 0.3%. Sectorally, pharma, FMCG and PSE outshone whereas metallic, IT underwent profit-booking.
Nifty may trade in 14,400-15,000 range this week, Bank Nifty below 20, 50, 100 day SMAs; Wipro, Cipla in focus
Bharti Airtel, Cipla, SBI, Gland Pharma, Tata Motors, L&T, Jindal Stainless stocks in focus
Share Market LIVE: Sensex, Nifty may open in green; India Inc continues to report robust quarterly results
Nifty technical outlook
– The weekly value motion shaped a bear candle carrying greater high-low, indicating breather after the previous two weeks’ rally. Within the course of, inventory particular motion prevailed because the broader market comparatively outperformed.
– The dearth of sooner retracement on both facet signifies prolonged consolidation (14900-14400) in coming weeks amid inventory particular motion that will assist index to type a better base. In the meantime, our medium time period view of 15400 stays intact. Therefore, merchants can use bouts of volatility to their benefit to construct lengthy positions by accumulating high quality massive cap and midcap shares amid development of Q4FY21 incomes season.
– Sectorally, BFSI, Infra and Consumption present beneficial risk-reward setup, whereas revenue reserving in Steel shares after a pointy rally presents contemporary entry alternative
– Our most popular massive caps are HDFC, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Titan Company, Berger Paints, Tata Motors, SAIL whereas Bata India, Ipca Laboratories, Astral, SKF India, KNR Constructions, Dhanuka Agritech, Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPL), Phillips Carbon Black are most popular inside midcap area
– In step with our view, the Nifty midcap and small cap indices displayed inherent energy and scaled to contemporary 52-weeks excessive regardless of minor revenue reserving within the benchmark. Going forward, we anticipate broader markets to keep up its relative optimistic value construction in opposition to benchmark
– Structurally, we don’t anticipate the index to breach the important thing assist threshold of 14200. Regardless of elevated volatility owing to concern over second Covid-19 wave, it has managed to carry the important thing assist of 14200 and shaped a better base. Therefore 14200 would proceed to behave as a key assist as it’s confluence of:
a) 100 days EMA positioned at 14300
b) final month’s low positioned at 14151
Financial institution Nifty outlook
– The Index snapped two weeks up transfer and closed the week down by greater than 2%. The weekly value motion shaped a bear candle which principally remained inside earlier week high-low vary signalling consolidation and lack of observe by to earlier two weeks up transfer
– Going forward, we anticipate the index to proceed with its final two weeks consolidation with optimistic bias within the broad vary of 31500-33300. The dearth of sooner retracement on both facet signifies prolonged consolidation that will assist the index to type a better base.
– The index has quick assist at 32000-31500 ranges being the confluence of the final two weeks low and the 61.8% retracement of the earlier up transfer (30405-34287).
– The index has maintained the rhythm of not correcting greater than 20% as witnessed since March 2020. Within the present state of affairs, it rebounded after correcting 19% from the all-time excessive (37708). Therefore it supplies beneficial risk-reward setup for the subsequent leg of up transfer
– Structurally, we don’t anticipate the index to breach the important thing assist threshold of 30000-30500. Regardless of elevated volatility owing to concern over second Covid-19 wave, it has managed to carry the important thing assist of 30500 and shaped a better base. Therefore 30500-30000 would proceed to behave as a key assist as it’s confluence of:
a. 200 days EMA positioned at 30259
b. final month’s low positioned at 30405
c. Worth equality with the 2 main decline within the final 14 months from the all-time excessive (37708) additionally highlights main assist round 30000 ranges
– Among the many oscillators, the weekly stochastic stays in uptrend and is seen oscillating across the impartial studying of fifty indicating consolidation with optimistic bias within the coming weeks
(Dharmesh Shah is the Head – Technical at ICICI Direct. Please seek the advice of your monetary advisor earlier than investing.)
ICICI Securities Restricted is a SEBI registered Analysis Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. It’s confirmed that the Analysis Analyst or his kinfolk or I-Sec don’t have precise/useful possession of 1% or extra securities of the topic firm, on the finish of twenty-two/04/2021 or don’t have any different monetary curiosity and don’t have any materials battle of curiosity. I-Sec or its associates may need acquired any compensation in direction of service provider banking/ broking companies from the topic corporations talked about as purchasers in previous 12 months