Monsoon 2021 in India: India slated to get healthy normal monsoon this year! Leading weather forecasting company Skymet has released its forecast for the monsoon in India this year. In a statement, it said that it was expecting the upcoming monsoon season to be ‘healthy normal’, expecting the rainfall to be 103% of the long-period average (LPA) of 880.6 mm for the four months of monsoon, i.e. June to September 2021. Before this, in January, the company had predicted that the monsoon would be ‘normal’, as per which the rainfall was predicted to fall in the upper half of the normal range. The spread of the normal rainfall is 96% to 104% of the LPA.
However, Skymet also said that it expected North Indian plains and parts of Northeastern region to likely be at a risk of witnessing deficiency in rainfall throughout the season. Moreover, some interior parts of Karnataka could also face scanty rainfall in the months of July and August. On the other hand, the onset and withdrawal phases in June and September respectively are likely to bring a good cross-country distribution of rains.
Skymet CEO Yogesh Patil said that the La Nina conditions that had been prevalent in the Pacific Ocean last year are softening and are likely to remain neutral during the monsoon. Patil added that there could be a fresh phase of marginal cooling over the Central Pacific Ocean during the season, which would rule out the occurrence of El Nino conditions which usually corrupt the monsoon season.
Skymet has said that there are 10% chances of there being season rainfall exceeding 110% of LPA, and 15% chances that that the rainfall would be between 105% to 110% of LPA. The amount of rainfall being between 96% and 104% of LPA is 60% likely, while the chances of there being rainfall between 90% and 95% of LPA are 15%. Skymet has said that there is no chance that there would be a drought or rainfall being less than 90% of LPA.