If ESG was a bubble, it no longer is: No real premium for ‘good’ ESG stocks overall; some areas like clean energy look frothy

That is doubtless a results of traders taking what seems to be a extra nuanced approached to ESG investing: Now not an organization’s total ESG rank, however contemplating firms relative to their friends based mostly on underlying metrics, and figuring out firms greatest positioned to enhance on ESG traits, the place many of those carry lower-than-average ranks.

By Savita Subramanian & Marisa Sullivan

Admittedly, excessive asset inflows can create bubbles, and flows into ESG investments in recent times have been excessive: To this point in 2021, practically $3 of each $10 of worldwide fairness inflows has been in ESG funds. Property below administration (AUM) within the 1,900-plus world ESG funds we observe hit a document $1.4 trillion in April—greater than double the AUM of a 12 months in the past and rising at practically 3x the tempo of non-ESG property.

For these fearful about overpaying for ESG attributes, we advocate combining ESG alerts with valuation. At this time, valuations for ‘good’ ESG firms (i.e., these with excessive ranks based mostly on a wide range of knowledge distributors) hardly look bubble-like, particularly relative to the current previous. Whereas shares with high quintile ESG scores based mostly on MSCI knowledge traded at a 20-30% premium to backside quintile shares a number of years in the past and as excessive as a 50% premium on the onset of Covid-19, that premium has shrunk to merely 5% right this moment. Sustainalytics and Refinitiv datasets yield comparable outcomes. That is doubtless a results of traders taking what seems to be a extra nuanced approached to ESG investing: Now not an organization’s total ESG rank, however contemplating firms relative to their friends based mostly on underlying metrics, and figuring out firms greatest positioned to enhance on ESG traits, the place many of those carry lower-than-average ranks.

Whereas the general ESG rating has seen de-rating, some points of ESG stay frothy: Clear vitality firms commerce at a 70% premium to conventional vitality friends on EV/EBITDA, down from highs earlier this 12 months however nonetheless properly above the 5-year common of a slim 10% premium. We choose inexpensive conventional vitality firms which are setting objectives and making strides to enhance their enterprise fashions. One other space commanding a better premium is the ‘S’ in ESG. Whereas not in bubble territory, firms with high quintile Social scores based mostly on MSCI knowledge commerce close to a ten% premium to poorly ranked friends, as traders shift focus to Social elements post-Covid-19. We expect this can be a extra sustainable premium as traders are inclined to pay constant premia for traits that might have helped in a previous disaster, and one can argue that Covid-19 was a social (healthcare) disaster somewhat than one characterised by governance or environmental dangers.

Understanding ESG fund positioning will help keep away from crowding threat. We discover ESG funds in all main areas (the US, Europe, Asia) are chubby the industrials, know-how and supplies sectors relative to the benchmark, however are most underweight vitality sector. And thus far this 12 months, it pays to keep away from the crowds: ESG issue efficiency has been strongest in probably the most underweight sectors like vitality (+15ppt lengthy/quick), and weakest in crowded sectors like industrials (-8ppt L/S) and tech (-4pp L/S).

Co-authored with Panos Seretis & Jure Jeric (MLI UK) & Girish Nair, Merrill Lynch (Australia)

Edited excerpts from BofA World Analysis’s report dated June 1

Authors are fairness & quant strategists, BofAS