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Desperate measures: Can Nitish Kumar’s gamble for larger role in national politics pay off? 

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Nitish Kumar’s latest manoeuvres don’t recommend any otherwise than that of a pacesetter making an attempt desperately to maintain himself related within the nationwide political discourse. (Categorical Picture)

The JD(U)’s dismal efficiency within the 2020 Bihar meeting elections had instantly set off speculations that Nitish Kumar’s political profession is now over. An enormous purpose was the BJP overshadowing the JD(U) within the meeting polls which ultimately allowed the previous to clip Kumar’s wings within the state management, regardless of him remaining the chief minister.

It looks like ‘Sushaasan Babu’, a veteran politician recognized for his old-school techniques which have labored in his favour up to now, has additionally realised that along with his fading relevance, it’s maybe time for him to reroute his profession graph again to the nationwide stage.

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Kumar’s latest manoeuvres don’t recommend any otherwise than that of a pacesetter making an attempt desperately to maintain himself related within the nationwide political discourse. After his shocking stance on the Pegasus snooping scandal, Kumar is now spearheading the rising refrain for a caste-based census within the nation, placing its NDA ally in a spot.

If the JD(U)’s resolution to contest the forthcoming Uttar Pradesh meeting elections, with or with out the BJP, was any indication, the decision handed by the JD(U) stating that Kumar has “all of the qualities of a major minister” solely cemented these speculations. Kumar’s social gathering, nevertheless, later clarified that Narendra Modi “is and will likely be” the NDA’s PM face for 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

A bit of political consultants consider that Nitish Kumar’s political profession has reached its summit and these latest strikes could also be an try and place himself because the face of a united opposition entrance, which is able to solely flip futile, like they’ve up to now.

Nitish Kumar’s rising political ambitions

Talking to FinancialExpress.com, Sangeet Ragi, HOD – Political Science, Delhi College, opined that Kumar could also be trying in direction of snapping ties with the BJP and this could be the explanation behind him advancing arguments in favour of a caste census, “realizing totally effectively that the BJP may not comply with it.”

Final month, Kumar led a 10-member delegation from Bihar to fulfill Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the difficulty of caste-based census. The delegation included representatives from events together with RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav.

“Each politician has ambitions as not all people is Naveen Patnaik who’s happy in state politics. After serving the state for 3 consecutive phrases because the chief minister, you begin harbouring increased ambitions,” Ragi mentioned.

“Nitish Kumar needs himself to be projected as totally different from the BJP. He thinks that his innings in Bihar politics is over and it’s time for him to maneuver past and search for a nationwide position for himself,” he added.

Nonetheless, political commentator Dr Suvrokamal Dutta, in dialog with FinancialExpress.com, believes that the “Kumar’s resistance towards the BJP goes to be futile” as he has tried the identical up to now which turned out to be a “failure”.

Calling the latest strikes by Kumar “political brinkmanship”, Dr Dutta mentioned it’s an try and demand higher sops from the Modi authorities or “foyer for an additional Cupboard berth” for certainly one of his loyalists.

“I don’t suppose that Nitish Kumar will likely be profitable even when he leads the boat and tries to hobnob with the Opposition as a result of he has accomplished that previously and his expertise was horrible. Second factor, the Opposition additionally doesn’t belief him,” he mentioned, calling Kumar the “setting solar”.

Revenge Politics by Nitish?

A significant lack of seats for the JD(U) within the 2020 Bihar meeting elections (from 71 seats in 2015 Bihar polls to simply 43 seats in 2020) regardless of contesting extra seats than the BJP meant Nitish Kumar dropping many of the bargaining energy within the NDA coalition. Though he has been made the chief minister, BJP now has the higher hand within the coalition authorities, which runs the state.

Bihar Meeting Election Outcomes 2020 – Occasion-wise seat share

Nonetheless, Kumar has currently intensified efforts to fortify his political bastion. Kumar’s friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Upendra Kushwaha’s social gathering is prone to be merged with the JD(U). Kushwaha has backed Kumar’s demand of a caste census and has even mentioned that the JD(U) would possibly would possibly transfer out of the NDA if the demand was not met.

Nonetheless, what must be stored in thoughts is that Kushwaha’s RLSP is a minor participant within the state politics and for Kumar to make a considerable transfer to unite the opposition, he must be part of palms with the RJD, which emerged as the only largest social gathering within the 2020 Bihar polls.

Nonetheless, such a political alignment is unlikely, maintaining in thoughts the 2017 political drama within the state when the JD(U) ditched the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ to hitch palms with the BJP.

Talking to FinancialExpress.com, RJD spokesperson Chitranjan Gagan mentioned that Kumar has misplaced the belief of the opposition and there’s no likelihood of RJD shaking palms with him now.

“This Nitish Kumar shouldn’t be the Nitish Kumar of 2015. His recognition and belief have fallen low. His latest strikes are making it fairly apparent that he needs to sail the boat with the Opposition however that received’t occur. How can somebody who has failed as a chief minister, grow to be the prime minister of the nation?” Gagan mentioned.

Robust street forward for Nitish

Whereas Nitish Kumar has catalysed his agenda towards the BJP, him rising because the face of a United opposition won’t be a straightforward job, owing to a number of elements.

Firstly, the so-called thought of a united opposition has failed again and again, regardless of a number of initiatives by leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and even Nitish Kumar. Bringing all of the non-BJP opposition events below one umbrella has not been a profitable try owing to the non-public ambitions of those leaders.

In reality, the opposition events have did not unite and tackle the BJP-led NDA authorities on points like farm legal guidelines, GST, demonetisation and Citizenship Modification Act.

One other issue is that the opposition in Bihar has misplaced belief in Kumar after he joined palms with the BJP. Again then, Kumar wished to do away with Lalu and he might see his future with Modi regardless that he needed to make sure compromises.

Political analysts consider that Kumar resurrecting the alliance with the BJP in 2017, 4 years after he walked out of the NDA over Narendra Modi’s elevation because the prime ministerial alternative of the coalition, has took his political graph in direction of end result.

“If he would have come out of the NDA throughout the first time when he grew to become the chief minister with the help of the BJP, although he had a really convincible victory within the state meeting, then issues would have been solely totally different and other people would have accepted him,” opined Mr Ragi.

In 2015, a yr after the Narendra Modi-led BJP authorities got here to energy, the Bihar ballot battle grew to become a Nitish Kumar vs PM Modi battle. In 2010, earlier than the JDU stop the NDA, he refused to let Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, marketing campaign for him.

Earlier, Nitish Kumar was seen as the one man who might rival PM Modi. Along with his clear picture, he additionally represented the “anti-Lalu Yadav” spectrum in Bihar.

Secondly, consultants consider that Kumar nudging the BJP over points like Pegasus snooping row won’t yield him a lot political mileage for the reason that difficulty, in contrast to unemployment, inflation and gas value rise, itself shouldn’t be of a lot relevance to the widespread man.

Thirdly, if the JD(U) decides to maneuver out of the NDA, it might have an effect in Bihar however not a lot in Delhi because the BJP itself has not been too prepared in having alliances. With a power of 300 alone, the BJP is already standing sturdy, dominating the Opposition within the Parliament.

Nonetheless, the demand of a caste-based census would possibly change into a major think about Kumar’s favour owing to the truth that caste performs an important position within the Indian politics, particularly in elections in states like Uttar Pradesh. In reality, the story of Indian politics during the last 4 a long time might be learn purely by way of the lens of the OBC. However uniting caste-based events below one umbrella will likely be a difficult job, owing to the complicated vote financial institution politics in several states.

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