Analyst Corner: Maintain ‘buy’ on Coal India with TP of Rs 180

The onset of Covid-19 in India had come at a time when stock at each Coal India’s mines and energy vegetation had been at already excessive ranges.

One other month of improved offtake in dispatches, with volumes at 55.1 mt, registering a 37.6% YoY improve in Could 2021. For the primary two months of FY22, Coal India’s offtake now stays larger by 38% YoY.

Offtake development in Could 2021 comes on the again of: a) a 15% rise in coal-based technology (primarily based on preliminary knowledge from POSOCO), amid a 7% rise in general energy demand, and b) re-stocking of stock at energy vegetation (up 5 mt MoM).
Coal India’s manufacturing elevated a modest 1.7% YoY to 42.1 mt (YTD: 3% YoY). This although is on anticipated traces, amid the big stock mendacity at its mines. Whereas there are uncertainties over demand amid stricter restrictions – and rightly so – energy demand in Could 2021 was additionally impacted by unseasonal climate situations. Over the previous fortnight, demand has proven indicators of an uptick (+10%), with some normalisation in demand from the western area. Stock at energy vegetation remains to be low at 29 mt (16 days of consumption) and we count on it to supply assist to Coal India’s offtake.

Indicators of a restoration in e-auction realisations: The onset of Covid-19 in India had come at a time when stock at each Coal India’s mines and energy vegetation had been at already excessive ranges. This, coupled with the must-run standing of renewables, meant demand for coal bore the brunt of weakened exercise. This led to a pointy decline in e-auction realisations. With a restoration in demand, e-auction premiums and realizations haven proven indicators of an enchancment. We count on this to finally seep in and enhance as stock ranges at Coal India’s mines cut back.

e-auction realization for COAL | 9MFY21: INR1,488/t, 3Q: INR1,466/t.